Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 33% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Patrick HETZEL

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
19%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.5%
  • LR and allies 33.4%
  • Left (NFP) 11.6%
  • Others 5.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.5%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereBas-Rhin — 7ème circonscription 45.5%33.4%11.6%5.2%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 36.5% +9.0 12.9% +20.5 24.1% −12.4 4.5% +0.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.6 12.2% +21.1 29.5% −17.9 3.9% +1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Denis KIEFFER RN and allies 23,071 41.5 —
Patrick HETZEL Elected LR and allies 17,974 32.3 —
Serge BLOCH Left (NFP) 6,912 12.4 —
Eric WOLFF Centre (Ensemble) 4,734 8.5 —
Anastasie LEIPP Others 1,821 3.3 —
Arthur WOLFF RN and allies 707 1.3 —
Jean MEYER Far left 414 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next