Riding profile

Moselle — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Moselle — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pascal JENFT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.9%
  • LR and allies 33.6%
  • Left (NFP) 11.0%
  • Others 4.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereMoselle — 5ème circonscription 48.9%33.6%11.0%4.3%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% +2.9 16.7% +16.9 20.8% −9.8 3.2% +1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.9 12.2% +21.4 29.5% −18.5 3.9% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pascal JENFT Elected RN and allies 20,884 47.5 —
Vincent SEITLINGER LR and allies 15,045 34.2 —
Lisa LAHORE Left (NFP) 5,439 12.4 —
Denis LIEB Others 1,128 2.6 —
Hervé HOCQUET Sovereignists 552 1.3 —
Gilles SEBASTIAN Far left 453 1.0 —
Stéphane MARCHAND RN and allies 449 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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