Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Françoise BUFFET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
62%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
76%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.3%
  • Left (NFP) 20.1%
  • LR and allies 10.4%
  • Others 4.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 4ème circonscription 36.9%27.3%20.1%10.4%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 36.5% +0.4 20.5% +6.8 24.1% −4.0 12.9% −2.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.9 20.6% +6.7 29.5% −9.4 12.2% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Delphine DAUBENBERGER RN and allies 22,625 33.1 —
Françoise BUFFET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,107 32.4 —
Raphaële KRATTINGER Left (NFP) 14,297 20.9 —
Nelly AESCHELMANN LR and allies 3,936 5.8 —
Catherine BERTHOL LR and allies 2,389 3.5 —
Bénédicte MATZ Others 1,982 2.9 —
Jean-Louis BIGOT RN and allies 645 0.9 —
Mehdi BENHLAL Far left 344 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next