Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 27% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thierry SOTHER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.1
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 38.1%
  • RN and allies 27.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 24.0%
  • LR and allies 5.1%
  • Others 4.0%
  • Greens 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 3ème circonscription 38.1%27.1%24.0%5.1%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 24.1% +14.1 36.5% −9.5 20.5% +3.5 12.9% −7.8
National averageFrance 29.5% +8.6 36.0% −8.9 20.6% +3.5 12.2% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thierry SOTHER Elected Left (NFP) 17,355 37.9 —
Bruno STUDER Centre (Ensemble) 13,260 29.0 —
Stéphanie DÔ RN and allies 10,567 23.1 —
Dera RATSIAJETSINIMARO LR and allies 1,760 3.9 —
Gautier PERRIN Others 813 1.8 —
Thierry PARAT Greens 782 1.7 —
Alexandre ZYZECK RN and allies 420 0.9 —
Mohamed SYLLA Left (NFP) 294 0.6 —
Denise GRANDMOUGIN Far left 252 0.6 —
Félix KLEIMANN Left (NFP) 129 0.3 —
Hicham HAMZA Others 112 0.2 —
Camille ROBERT Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next