Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 21% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Théo BERNHARDT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 27.7
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 48.3%
LR and allies 20.6%
Centre (Ensemble) 18.6%
Left (NFP) 8.4%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.0%
Greens 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	LR and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)
HereBas-Rhin — 8ème circonscription	48.3%	20.6%	18.6%	8.4%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin	36.5% +11.8	12.9% +7.8	20.5% −1.9	24.1% −15.7
National averageFrance	36.0% +12.3	12.2% +8.4	20.6% −2.0	29.5% −21.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+27.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Théo BERNHARDT Elected	RN and allies	26,313	44.2	—
Stéphanie KOCHERT	Centre (Ensemble)	14,006	23.5	—
Victor VOGT	LR and allies	6,818	11.4	—
Myriam ZEKAGH	Left (NFP)	5,432	9.1	—
Christian KLIPFEL	LR and allies	4,731	7.9	—
Claire GROSHEITSCH	Greens	739	1.2	—
Nathan HACKENSCHMIDT	RN and allies	663	1.1	—
Stella BATISSE	Sovereignists	576	1.0	—
Catherine GSELL	Far left	306	0.5	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next