Riding profile
Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription
The question
Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Bas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 49% vote share, against 19% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sandra REGOL
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBas-Rhin — 1ère circonscription | 49.0% | 19.3% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Provincial averageBas-Rhin | 24.1% +25.0 | 20.5% −1.2 | 36.5% −18.4 | 12.9% −5.2 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +19.6 | 20.6% −1.3 | 36.0% −17.9 | 12.2% −4.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandra REGOL Elected | Left (NFP) | 20,631 | 47.6 | — |
| Etienne LOOS | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,513 | 24.3 | — |
| Hombeline DU PARC | RN and allies | 6,081 | 14.0 | — |
| Irène WEISS | LR and allies | 2,787 | 6.4 | — |
| Serge OEHLER | Left (NFP) | 835 | 1.9 | — |
| Jamal ROUCHDI | Others | 472 | 1.1 | — |
| Luc MENARD | RN and allies | 436 | 1.0 | — |
| Patrick ARBOGAST | Greens | 424 | 1.0 | — |
| Odette HOLTZER | Others | 395 | 0.9 | — |
| Albéric BARRET | Greens | 315 | 0.7 | — |
| Louise FÈVE | Far left | 146 | 0.3 | — |
| Frédéric SEIGLE-MURANDI | Left (NFP) | 107 | 0.3 | — |
| Dan BENHAMOU | Far left | 77 | 0.2 | — |
| Thomas BRANT | Others | 77 | 0.2 | — |
| Thomas SCHLUND | Others | 43 | 0.1 | — |
| Etienne GENIEUX | Far left | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Bas-Rhin — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Bas-Rhin — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Bas-Rhin — 4ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Bas-Rhin — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Bas-Rhin — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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