Riding profile

Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Bas-Rhin

The question

Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Bas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Bas-Rhin, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 42% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Charles SITZENSTUHL

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
14.9
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.4%
  • Left (NFP) 16.2%
  • LR and allies 6.2%
  • Others 5.8%
  • Sovereignists 1.1%
  • Greens 0.6%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereBas-Rhin — 5ème circonscription 42.3%27.4%16.2%6.2%
Provincial averageBas-Rhin 36.5% +5.7 20.5% +6.9 24.1% −7.9 12.9% −6.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.3 20.6% +6.8 29.5% −13.3 12.2% −6.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thomas ESTEVE RN and allies 27,897 39.2 —
Charles SITZENSTUHL Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,993 32.3 —
Marc RUHLMANN Left (NFP) 12,043 16.9 —
Leo COUTAUD LR and allies 3,529 5.0 —
Sarah WEISS MOESSMER Others 2,681 3.8 —
Christian DANTZ Greens 803 1.1 —
Bastien MACIA Sovereignists 767 1.1 —
Patrick DUTTER Far left 446 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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