Riding profile

Moselle — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Moselle — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Fabien DI FILIPPO

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
36%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.3%
  • LR and allies 36.8%
  • Left (NFP) 11.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereMoselle — 4ème circonscription 46.3%36.8%11.0%3.1%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% +0.4 16.7% +20.1 20.8% −9.8 17.4% −14.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.4 12.2% +24.6 29.5% −18.5 20.6% −17.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Océane SIMON RN and allies 22,265 42.7 —
Fabien DI FILIPPO Elected LR and allies 18,659 35.8 —
Helene GIRARDOT Left (NFP) 6,156 11.8 —
Emilie CRENNER Centre (Ensemble) 4,191 8.0 —
Jean-Philippe BOTT RN and allies 464 0.9 —
Marc BAUD-BERTIER Far left 438 0.8 —
Léna DECKER Others 17 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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