Riding profile

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Meurthe-et-Moselle

The question

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Meurthe-et-Moselle, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Estelle MERCIER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 96%
Mean margin (pts): 7.0
P(close race): 8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 36.8%
RN and allies 29.8%
Centre (Ensemble) 21.3%
LR and allies 7.6%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.3%
Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereMeurthe-et-Moselle — 1ère circonscription	36.8%	29.8%	21.3%	7.6%
Provincial averageMeurthe-et-Moselle	31.4% +5.3	39.4% −9.7	17.6% +3.7	13.3% −5.7
National averageFrance	29.5% +7.3	36.0% −6.2	20.6% +0.7	12.2% −4.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+7.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Estelle MERCIER Elected	Left (NFP)	20,645	37.7	—
Patricia MELET	RN and allies	14,719	26.9	—
Philippe GUILLEMARD	Centre (Ensemble)	14,435	26.4	—
Aurélien ARNOULD	LR and allies	3,518	6.4	—
Christiane NIMSGERN	Far left	741	1.4	—
Massimo NESPOLO	Sovereignists	664	1.2	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next