Riding profile
Moselle — 3ème circonscription
The question
Moselle — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Moselle — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nathalie COLIN-OESTERLÉ
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 93%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 13%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMoselle — 3ème circonscription | 36.4% | 34.0% | 26.1% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMoselle | 46.0% −9.6 | 16.7% +17.3 | 20.8% +5.3 | 3.2% −1.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +0.4 | 12.2% +21.8 | 29.5% −3.4 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor CHOMARD | RN and allies | 16,948 | 35.3 | — |
| Nathalie COLIN-OESTERLÉ Elected | LR and allies | 16,631 | 34.7 | — |
| Charlotte LEDUC | Left (NFP) | 13,565 | 28.3 | — |
| Etienne HODARA | Far left | 699 | 1.5 | — |
| Gaël DIAFERIA | Far left | 143 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Moselle — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Moselle — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Moselle — 9ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Moselle — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Moselle — 8ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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