Riding profile

Moselle — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 9ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Moselle — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 30% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Isabelle RAUCH

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
72%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 30.0%
  • Left (NFP) 22.0%
  • Others 2.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereMoselle — 9ème circonscription 42.9%30.0%22.0%2.6%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% −3.0 17.4% +12.6 20.8% +1.2 3.2% −0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.0 20.6% +9.4 29.5% −7.5 3.9% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Baptiste PHILIPPO RN and allies 24,483 38.3
Isabelle RAUCH Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,460 35.1
Brigitte VAÎSSE Left (NFP) 14,607 22.8
Florent HAMMERSCHMITT RN and allies 1,181 1.9
Guy MAURHOFER Far left 805 1.3
Laurent KOPP Others 413 0.7
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next