Riding profile

Moselle — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Moselle — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laurent JACOBELLI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.1%
  • Left (NFP) 28.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.7%
  • LR and allies 7.7%
  • Far left 2.4%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereMoselle — 8ème circonscription 49.1%28.1%10.7%7.7%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% +3.2 20.8% +7.3 17.4% −6.7 16.7% −9.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.2 29.5% −1.4 20.6% −9.9 12.2% −4.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laurent JACOBELLI Elected RN and allies 23,558 46.4
Céline LEGER Left (NFP) 14,724 29.0
Samuel ZONATO Centre (Ensemble) 7,986 15.7
Raphaëlle ROSA LR and allies 3,296 6.5
Annick JOLIVET Far left 1,249 2.5
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next