Riding profile

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Meurthe-et-Moselle

The question

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Meurthe-et-Moselle, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric WEBER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 46.2%
  • Left (NFP) 27.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.0%
  • LR and allies 9.0%
  • Far left 2.1%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereMeurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscription 46.2%27.6%13.0%9.0%
Provincial averageMeurthe-et-Moselle 39.4% +6.8 31.4% −3.8 17.6% −4.6 13.3% −4.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +10.3 29.5% −1.9 20.6% −7.6 12.2% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frédéric WEBER Elected RN and allies 19,938 43.5 —
Martine ETIENNE Left (NFP) 13,068 28.5 —
Valérie MAURICE Centre (Ensemble) 8,248 18.0 —
Mathieu SERVAGI LR and allies 3,599 7.8 —
Xavier BOURY Far left 1,022 2.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next