Riding profile

Meuse — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Meuse

The question

Meuse — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Meuse — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Meuse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Florence GOULET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 51.1%
  • LR and allies 31.6%
  • Left (NFP) 13.0%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Greens 1.3%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereMeuse — 2ème circonscription 51.1%31.6%13.0%1.9%
Provincial averageMeuse 49.7% +1.4 33.1% −1.5 12.9% +0.1 1.9%
National averageFrance 36.0% +15.2 12.2% +19.4 29.5% −16.5 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Florence GOULET Elected RN and allies 19,011 50.6
Jerome DUMONT LR and allies 11,976 31.9
Johan LAFLOTTE Left (NFP) 5,391 14.4
Valentine LAFUE Greens 742 2.0
Pierre NORDEMANN Far left 431 1.1
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next