Riding profile
Meuse — 1ère circonscription
The question
Meuse — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Meuse — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Meuse, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 35% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Maxime AMBLARD
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMeuse — 1ère circonscription | 48.3% | 34.7% | 12.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageMeuse | 49.7% −1.4 | 33.1% +1.5 | 12.9% −0.1 | 1.9% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +12.4 | 12.2% +22.4 | 29.5% −16.6 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime AMBLARD Elected | RN and allies | 23,680 | 48.0 | — |
| Bertrand PANCHER | LR and allies | 16,901 | 34.2 | — |
| Olivier GUCKERT | Left (NFP) | 7,066 | 14.3 | — |
| Sylvie MARIAGE | Sovereignists | 708 | 1.4 | — |
| Grégoire MOUTAUX | LR and allies | 548 | 1.1 | — |
| Blaise TYMEN | Far left | 481 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Meuse — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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