Riding profile

Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Marne

The question

Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Marne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 57% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laurence ROBERT-DEHAULT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.7%
  • LR and allies 27.9%
  • Left (NFP) 11.8%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereHaute-Marne — 2ème circonscription 56.7%27.9%11.8%1.9%
Provincial averageHaute-Marne 54.2% +2.6 14.5% +13.3 15.7% −3.9 2.3% −0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.8 12.2% +15.6 29.5% −17.7 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laurence ROBERT-DEHAULT Elected RN and allies 21,009 56.8
Nicolas LACROIX LR and allies 10,407 28.1
Ingrid VIOT Left (NFP) 4,876 13.2
Justin PRUM Far left 684 1.9
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next