Riding profile

Haute-Marne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Marne

The question

Haute-Marne — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Marne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Marne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 23% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christophe BENTZ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 51.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 23.0%
  • Left (NFP) 19.5%
  • Others 2.8%
  • Far left 1.8%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereHaute-Marne — 1ère circonscription 51.6%23.0%19.5%2.8%
Provincial averageHaute-Marne 54.2% −2.6 23.0% 15.7% +3.9 2.3% +0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +15.6 20.6% +2.4 29.5% −10.0 3.9% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe BENTZ Elected RN and allies 21,815 48.8
Bérangère ABBA Centre (Ensemble) 12,529 28.1
Benjamin LAMBERT Left (NFP) 9,104 20.4
Sylvain DEMAY Far left 869 1.9
Baptiste GALLET Others 355 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next