Riding profile

Vosges — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vosges

The question

Vosges — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Vosges — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vosges, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sébastien HUMBERT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.2%
  • LR and allies 31.8%
  • Left (NFP) 14.7%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereVosges — 4ème circonscription 50.2%31.8%14.7%1.9%
Provincial averageVosges 43.7% +6.5 31.1% +0.7 15.2% −0.5 1.9%
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.2 12.2% +19.6 29.5% −14.8 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien HUMBERT Elected RN and allies 20,529 48.0 —
Jean-Jacques GAULTIER LR and allies 13,644 31.9 —
François-Xavier WEIN Left (NFP) 6,851 16.0 —
Camille BAILLY Far left 674 1.6 —
Caroline HUBERT RN and allies 538 1.3 —
Marie BENI Centre (Ensemble) 519 1.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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