Riding profile

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Meurthe-et-Moselle

The question

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Meurthe-et-Moselle, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 26% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane HABLOT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.0%
  • RN and allies 26.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.6%
  • LR and allies 6.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereMeurthe-et-Moselle — 2ème circonscription 39.0%26.3%25.6%6.4%
Provincial averageMeurthe-et-Moselle 31.4% +7.5 39.4% −13.1 17.6% +8.0 13.3% −7.0
National averageFrance 29.5% +9.5 36.0% −9.7 20.6% +5.1 12.2% −5.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane HABLOT Elected Left (NFP) 18,008 39.9 —
Emmanuel LACRESSE Centre (Ensemble) 13,869 30.7 —
Geneviève MAILLOT RN and allies 10,131 22.4 —
Sloane FROMONT LR and allies 2,325 5.2 —
Lucy GEORGES RN and allies 422 0.9 —
Odile DESTOMBES Far left 365 0.8 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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