Riding profile

Moselle — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Moselle — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ludovic MENDES

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
14.6
P(close race)
37%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.3%
  • Left (NFP) 25.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.1%
  • Others 6.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereMoselle — 2ème circonscription 40.3%25.7%25.1%6.7%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% −5.7 20.8% +4.9 17.4% +7.7 3.2% +3.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.3 29.5% −3.8 20.6% +4.5 3.9% +2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marie-Claude VOINCON RN and allies 18,352 37.5
Ludovic MENDES Elected Centre (Ensemble) 14,795 30.2
Victorien NICOLAS Left (NFP) 13,028 26.6
Laurent PARISSE Others 1,477 3.0
Aurélie CONTAL Others 741 1.5
Mario RINALDI Far left 461 0.9
Gisèle TATY BOUANGA Others 109 0.2
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next