Riding profile

Moselle — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Moselle

The question

Moselle — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Moselle — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Moselle, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Belkhir BELHADDAD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
17.4
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 42.6%
  • Left (NFP) 25.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.5%
  • Others 5.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.9%
  • Far left 1.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereMoselle — 1ère circonscription 42.6%25.2%22.5%5.0%
Provincial averageMoselle 46.0% −3.4 20.8% +4.4 17.4% +5.1 3.2% +1.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +6.6 29.5% −4.3 20.6% +1.9 3.9% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grégoire LALOUX RN and allies 22,570 39.8 —
Belkhir BELHADDAD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 15,640 27.6 —
Vincent FELIX Left (NFP) 14,793 26.1 —
Stephen DUSO-BAUDUIN Others 1,094 1.9 —
Jean-François JACQUES Sovereignists 1,027 1.8 —
Didier GEORGET Far left 745 1.3 —
Américo Jonas COSTA Others 618 1.1 —
Célia LEJAL Far left 202 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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