Riding profile

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Meurthe-et-Moselle

The question

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 4ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Meurthe-et-Moselle — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Meurthe-et-Moselle, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 33% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Thibault BAZIN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability: 92%
Mean margin (pts): 12.7
P(close race): 16%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 45.4%
LR and allies 32.6%
Left (NFP) 18.8%
Others 1.9%
Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	LR and allies	Left (NFP)	Others
HereMeurthe-et-Moselle — 4ème circonscription	45.4%	32.6%	18.8%	1.9%
Provincial averageMeurthe-et-Moselle	39.4% +6.0	13.3% +19.3	31.4% −12.6	2.0% −0.1
National averageFrance	36.0% +9.4	12.2% +20.4	29.5% −10.7	3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

LR and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+12.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Dominique BILDE	RN and allies	27,618	43.7	—
Thibault BAZIN Elected	LR and allies	20,984	33.2	—
Barbara BERTOZZI-BIÉVELOT	Left (NFP)	13,009	20.6	—
Geneviève HEILLIETTE	Far left	864	1.4	—
Valérie CANTIGET	RN and allies	719	1.1	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next