Riding profile

Vosges — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Vosges

The question

Vosges — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Vosges — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Vosges, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 42% vote share, against 39% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane VIRY

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 41.8%
  • RN and allies 39.1%
  • Left (NFP) 15.9%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereVosges — 1ère circonscription 41.8%39.1%15.9%1.9%
Provincial averageVosges 31.1% +10.7 43.7% −4.6 15.2% +0.7 1.9%
National averageFrance 12.2% +29.6 36.0% +3.1 29.5% −13.6 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane VIRY Elected LR and allies 21,200 42.9
Pierre FRANÇOIS RN and allies 18,886 38.2
Dominique PERRIN Left (NFP) 8,655 17.5
Evelyne ABBOT Far left 737 1.5
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next