Riding profile

Haute-Saône — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Saône

The question

Haute-Saône — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Haute-Saône — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Saône, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 54% vote share, against 22% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emeric SALMON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.8%
  • Left (NFP) 21.7%
  • LR and allies 12.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereHaute-Saône — 2ème circonscription 53.8%21.7%12.1%8.8%
Provincial averageHaute-Saône 53.3% +0.5 19.0% +2.7 6.7% +5.4 16.9% −8.0
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.8 29.5% −7.8 12.2% −0.1 20.6% −11.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+32.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emeric SALMON Elected RN and allies 30,315 50.1 —
Eric HOULLEY Left (NFP) 13,632 22.5 —
Fabrice BARASSI-ZAMOCHNIKOFF Centre (Ensemble) 8,354 13.8 —
Loic LABORIE LR and allies 6,600 10.9 —
Isabelle APRO Far left 1,018 1.7 —
Christophe DEVILLERS RN and allies 579 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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