Riding profile

Vosges — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Vosges

The question

Vosges — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Vosges — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Vosges, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 47% vote share, against 35% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christophe NAEGELEN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 47.0%
  • RN and allies 34.6%
  • Left (NFP) 15.4%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereVosges — 3ème circonscription 47.0%34.6%15.4%1.9%
Provincial averageVosges 31.1% +15.9 43.7% −9.1 15.2% +0.3 1.9%
National averageFrance 12.2% +34.8 36.0% −1.4 29.5% −14.0 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christophe NAEGELEN Elected LR and allies 20,652 48.3
Pauline FRESSE RN and allies 14,287 33.4
Etienne BACHELART Left (NFP) 7,283 17.0
Stéphanie BAILLY Far left 511 1.2
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next