Riding profile
Aube — 1ère circonscription
The question
Aube — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Aube — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Aube, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 57% vote share, against 14% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jordan GUITTON
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 42.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAube — 1ère circonscription | 56.6% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 12.9% |
| Provincial averageAube | 50.2% +6.4 | 10.0% +3.7 | 17.6% −4.1 | 18.5% −5.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +20.6 | 20.6% −6.8 | 29.5% −16.0 | 12.2% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan GUITTON Elected | RN and allies | 22,636 | 53.8 | — |
| Philippe BEURY | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,898 | 18.8 | — |
| Alice BARRY | Left (NFP) | 6,019 | 14.3 | — |
| Chris MANIERI-BIGORGNE | LR and allies | 4,921 | 11.7 | — |
| Lionel PAILLARD | Far left | 570 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aube — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aube — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Haute-Marne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Yonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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