Riding profile
Aube — 2ème circonscription
The question
Aube — 2ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Aube — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aube, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 29% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Valérie BAZIN-MALGRAS
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAube — 2ème circonscription | 47.6% | 29.0% | 15.8% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageAube | 50.2% −2.6 | 18.5% +10.5 | 17.6% −1.9 | 10.0% −5.5 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +11.6 | 12.2% +16.8 | 29.5% −13.7 | 20.6% −16.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albéric FERRAND | RN and allies | 22,316 | 44.8 | — |
| Valérie BAZIN-MALGRAS Elected | LR and allies | 13,902 | 27.9 | — |
| Samira SEBBARI | Left (NFP) | 8,256 | 16.6 | — |
| Salomé FONTAINE-GARCIA | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,703 | 9.4 | — |
| Romain VALLÉE | Far left | 603 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aube — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Yonne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aube — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Marne — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Yonne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Côte-d'Or — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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