Riding profile

Yonne — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Yonne

The question

Yonne — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Yonne — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Yonne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 54% vote share, against 25% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julien ODOUL

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 54.2%
  • Left (NFP) 24.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.5%
  • LR and allies 5.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereYonne — 3ème circonscription 54.2%24.6%12.5%5.2%
Provincial averageYonne 49.1% +5.1 22.6% +2.0 16.4% −4.0 7.3% −2.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +18.2 29.5% −4.9 20.6% −8.1 12.2% −7.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+29.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julien ODOUL Elected RN and allies 28,735 50.4 —
Nicolas SORET Left (NFP) 14,530 25.5 —
Michèle CROUZET Centre (Ensemble) 9,973 17.5 —
Grégoire WEIGEL LR and allies 2,271 4.0 —
Annik VILBOIS RN and allies 568 1.0 —
Simonne PALLANT Far left 541 0.9 —
Jean-Charles KERMIN Far left 350 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next