Riding profile

Loiret — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Loiret

The question

Loiret — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Loiret — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Loiret, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 54% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thomas MÉNAGÉ

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 53.5%
  • Left (NFP) 20.3%
  • LR and allies 13.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereLoiret — 4ème circonscription 53.5%20.3%13.0%10.0%
Provincial averageLoiret 42.3% +11.2 24.5% −4.2 11.9% +1.1 20.8% −10.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +17.6 29.5% −9.2 12.2% +0.8 20.6% −10.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+33.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thomas MÉNAGÉ Elected RN and allies 23,231 49.6 —
Bruno NOTTIN Left (NFP) 9,889 21.1 —
Mélusine HARLÉ Centre (Ensemble) 7,029 15.0 —
Ariel LÉVY LR and allies 5,537 11.8 —
Dominique CLERGUE Far left 551 1.2 —
Georges LOUBERT RN and allies 535 1.1 —
Françoise ROCHE Others 13 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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