Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Frédéric VALLETOUX

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Toss-up

Probability
82%
Mean margin (pts)
11.2
P(close race)
36%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.8%
  • Left (NFP) 23.0%
  • Greens 3.3%
  • Others 2.3%
  • Far left 1.4%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Greens
HereSeine-et-Marne — 2ème circonscription 40.0%28.8%23.0%3.3%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne 35.7% +4.2 22.3% +6.5 31.1% −8.1 3.3%
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.0 20.6% +8.2 29.5% −6.5 2.1% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ivanka DIMITROVA RN and allies 18,887 35.1 —
Frédéric VALLETOUX Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,171 33.7 —
Nour BENAÏSSA WATBOT Left (NFP) 12,765 23.7 —
Loïc ROUSSELLE Greens 2,102 3.9 —
Guillaume CAZAURAN RN and allies 991 1.8 —
Élodie BROCH Far left 419 0.8 —
Stephanie FAURY Far left 377 0.7 —
Valérian LAPKOFF Others 152 0.3 —
Sophie BALASTRE Sovereignists 8 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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