Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Céline THIÉBAULT-MARTINEZ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 94%
Mean margin (pts): 10.7
P(close race): 11%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 39.4%
Left (NFP) 28.8%
Centre (Ensemble) 16.5%
LR and allies 8.1%
Others 6.5%
Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereSeine-et-Marne — 9ème circonscription	39.4%	28.8%	16.5%	8.1%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne	35.7% +3.7	31.1% −2.3	22.3% −5.8	14.6% −6.5
National averageFrance	36.0% +3.5	29.5% −0.7	20.6% −4.0	12.2% −4.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+10.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Morgann VANACKER	RN and allies	19,781	35.5	—
Céline THIÉBAULT-MARTINEZ Elected	Left (NFP)	16,521	29.6	—
Michèle PEYRON	Centre (Ensemble)	12,023	21.6	—
Franck DENION	LR and allies	3,834	6.9	—
Marie-Pierre CHEVALLIER	Others	1,745	3.1	—
Kamal VALCIN	Others	775	1.4	—
Bruno-Charles DELALANDRE	RN and allies	622	1.1	—
Florence WOODS	Far left	426	0.8	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next