Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 33% vote share, against 31% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Maud PETIT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
41%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 32.7%
  • RN and allies 31.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.1%
  • LR and allies 4.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.3%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-de-Marne — 4ème circonscription 32.7%31.0%27.1%4.9%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% −11.3 22.9% +8.1 19.9% +7.2 12.6% −7.7
National averageFrance 29.5% +3.2 36.0% −5.0 20.6% +6.5 12.2% −7.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adel AMARA Left (NFP) 16,505 33.0 —
Maud PETIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 15,287 30.6 —
Alain PHILIPPET RN and allies 13,474 26.9 —
Bernard CHAUSSEGROS LR and allies 1,292 2.6 —
Marie-Odile PERRU Centre (Ensemble) 820 1.6 —
Soraya BENSLIMANE Sovereignists 624 1.3 —
Michaël BOHBOT RN and allies 594 1.2 —
Brigitte MOULIN Far left 557 1.1 —
Maxence SOBRAL LR and allies 543 1.1 —
Jean DAMBREVILLE Left (NFP) 293 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next