Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 36% vote share, against 35% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mathieu LEFEVRE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
66%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
67%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 36.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 34.9%
  • RN and allies 24.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Others
HereVal-de-Marne — 5ème circonscription 36.3%34.9%24.7%2.0%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% −7.6 19.9% +14.9 22.9% +1.8 2.0%
National averageFrance 29.5% +6.8 20.6% +14.3 36.0% −11.3 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathieu LEFEVRE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,416 38.5 —
Julien LEGER Left (NFP) 22,657 37.3 —
Isabelle HUGUENIN-RICHARD RN and allies 12,401 20.4 —
Simone BENOUADAH RN and allies 853 1.4 —
Catherine MOLINARI Centre (Ensemble) 717 1.2 —
François JOSLIN Far left 563 0.9 —
Maeva Sara ANGELE Centre (Ensemble) 179 0.3 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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