Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sylvain BERRIOS

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
51%
Mean margin (pts)
3.1
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 32.1%
  • LR and allies 29.1%
  • RN and allies 22.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) LR and allies RN and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereVal-de-Marne — 1ère circonscription 32.1%29.1%22.4%13.6%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% −11.9 12.6% +16.4 22.9% −0.5 19.9% −6.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +2.6 12.2% +16.8 36.0% −13.6 20.6% −7.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lyes LOUFFOK Left (NFP) 19,974 33.0 —
Sylvain BERRIOS Elected LR and allies 16,916 28.0 —
Frédéric DESCROZAILLE Centre (Ensemble) 11,232 18.6 —
Anne-Gaëlle SABOURIN RN and allies 11,100 18.4 —
Ludovic MOREL RN and allies 682 1.1 —
Valérie DE PIERREPONT Far left 567 0.9 —
Hélène CAVAT Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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