Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 54% vote share, against 22% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Clémence GUETTÉ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 54.3%
  • RN and allies 21.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.1%
  • LR and allies 6.4%
  • Greens 2.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-de-Marne — 2ème circonscription 54.3%21.8%11.1%6.4%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% +10.3 22.9% −1.1 19.9% −8.8 12.6% −6.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +24.8 36.0% −14.2 20.6% −9.5 12.2% −5.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+32.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clémence GUETTÉ Elected Left (NFP) 22,494 55.0 —
Antoine GHAYE RN and allies 7,153 17.5 —
Mehmet CEYLAN Centre (Ensemble) 6,559 16.0 —
Michel SASPORTAS LR and allies 2,103 5.1 —
Patricia FOFFÉ Greens 1,236 3.0 —
Sabrina PRUVOT Far left 546 1.3 —
Gérard CRUZILLE RN and allies 514 1.3 —
Manon HALLER Far left 291 0.7 —
Clémence BOUTARIN Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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