Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 59% vote share, against 19% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mathilde PANOT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 58.5%
  • RN and allies 19.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.6%
  • Greens 3.6%
  • Others 2.5%
  • Far left 1.5%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Greens
HereVal-de-Marne — 10ème circonscription 58.5%19.0%13.6%3.6%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% +14.6 22.9% −3.9 19.9% −6.3 2.2% +1.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +29.0 36.0% −17.0 20.6% −7.0 2.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+39.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mathilde PANOT Elected Left (NFP) 25,536 59.3 —
Shannon SEBAN Centre (Ensemble) 7,977 18.5 —
Elise LIN RN and allies 6,408 14.9 —
Coralie BARBERON Greens 1,788 4.2 —
Christine LICHTENAUER Far left 491 1.1 —
Charlotte SEVESTRE RN and allies 469 1.1 —
Selma LABIB Far left 212 0.5 —
Farid AÏSSAOUI Others 204 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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