Riding profile

Paris — 10ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 10ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 50% vote share, against 21% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rodrigo ARENAS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 49.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.2%
  • RN and allies 15.7%
  • LR and allies 7.2%
  • Others 3.3%
  • Greens 2.1%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 10ème circonscription 49.9%21.2%15.7%7.2%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +5.4 27.8% −6.6 15.0% +0.7 9.3% −2.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +20.4 20.6% +0.6 36.0% −20.3 12.2% −5.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rodrigo ARENAS Elected Left (NFP) 25,216 50.7 —
Benjamin DJIANE Centre (Ensemble) 11,918 23.9 —
Agnès PAGEARD RN and allies 5,670 11.4 —
Patrick VIRY LR and allies 2,965 6.0 —
Yann WEHRLING Greens 1,324 2.7 —
Alexia OSTYN Centre (Ensemble) 640 1.3 —
Roger BERTHOLON RN and allies 634 1.3 —
Charlotte DE VILMORIN Others 623 1.3 —
Michel GOLDSTEIN Centre (Ensemble) 469 0.9 —
Marianne NOEL Far left 318 0.6 —
Camille LEBRUN Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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