Riding profile

Paris — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Paris — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Olivia GREGOIRE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 35.2%
  • Left (NFP) 28.3%
  • RN and allies 19.1%
  • LR and allies 14.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 12ème circonscription 35.2%28.3%19.1%14.2%
Provincial averageParis 27.8% +7.4 44.5% −16.3 15.0% +4.1 9.3% +4.9
National averageFrance 20.6% +14.6 29.5% −1.2 36.0% −16.8 12.2% +2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olivia GREGOIRE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,145 39.4 —
Celine MALAISÉ Left (NFP) 16,294 29.0 —
David ATTIA RN and allies 8,111 14.4 —
Jérôme LORIAU LR and allies 7,297 13.0 —
Philippe CUIGNACHE D'APREVAL RN and allies 947 1.7 —
Alienor BILLAULT HARLE Greens 850 1.5 —
Arnaud DE GONTAUT BIRON Centre (Ensemble) 449 0.8 —
Muriel MONCHAL Far left 156 0.3 —
Laszlo FERRÉOL Left (NFP) 19 0.0 —
Joachim MILESCHI Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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