Riding profile

Paris — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Paris — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Astrid PANOSYAN-BOUVET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
4.4
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 32.1%
  • LR and allies 27.6%
  • RN and allies 20.6%
  • Left (NFP) 17.2%
  • Others 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP)
HereParis — 4ème circonscription 32.1%27.6%20.6%17.2%
Provincial averageParis 27.8% +4.3 9.3% +18.3 15.0% +5.6 44.5% −27.3
National averageFrance 20.6% +11.5 12.2% +15.4 36.0% −15.3 29.5% −12.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Astrid PANOSYAN-BOUVET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 19,677 37.2 —
Geoffroy BOULARD LR and allies 14,048 26.6 —
Théa FOURDRINIER Left (NFP) 9,474 17.9 —
Arnaud DASSIER RN and allies 8,227 15.6 —
Olivier COURTOIS RN and allies 1,135 2.1 —
Pierre LEVENARD Far left 105 0.2 —
Karim BRITEL Others 99 0.2 —
Laetitia LAURON Left (NFP) 84 0.2 —
Guillaume CARDON Others 56 0.1 —
Emile MAHIEU Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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