Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 23% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Constance LE GRIP

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
12.1
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 35.0%
  • RN and allies 22.9%
  • LR and allies 21.0%
  • Left (NFP) 18.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP)
HereHauts-de-Seine — 6ème circonscription 35.0%22.9%21.0%18.4%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine 32.1% +2.9 19.2% +3.7 16.9% +4.2 35.9% −17.5
National averageFrance 20.6% +14.5 36.0% −13.0 12.2% +8.8 29.5% −11.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Constance LE GRIP Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,627 40.1 —
Geoffroy DIDIER LR and allies 11,217 19.9 —
Sihame MUSCIANISI Left (NFP) 10,857 19.3 —
Alexis PANY RN and allies 9,512 16.9 —
Jean MESSIHA RN and allies 1,776 3.1 —
Françoise MARCEL Far left 352 0.6 —
François-Xavier DEROCHE Centre (Ensemble) 25 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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