Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 49% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sabrina SEBAIHI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 24.8
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 49.4%
Centre (Ensemble) 24.7%
RN and allies 19.7%
Others 2.0%
Greens 1.4%
Far left 1.4%
LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	RN and allies	Others
HereHauts-de-Seine — 4ème circonscription	49.4%	24.7%	19.7%	2.0%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine	35.9% +13.5	32.1% −7.5	19.2% +0.5	2.1% −0.1
National averageFrance	29.5% +20.0	20.6% +4.1	36.0% −16.3	3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+24.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Sabrina SEBAIHI Elected	Left (NFP)	26,373	49.1	—
Isabelle DE CRECY	Centre (Ensemble)	15,899	29.6	—
Melina BRAVO	RN and allies	8,185	15.3	—
Aurélie VONSY	Greens	1,086	2.0	—
Régis VALETTE	RN and allies	758	1.4	—
Laurent STRUMANNE	Far left	425	0.8	—
Mathilde EISENBERG	Far left	391	0.7	—
Valéry BARNY	Left (NFP)	297	0.6	—
Sean Phillip MC COY	Left (NFP)	263	0.5	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next