Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 55% vote share, against 22% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Paul VANNIER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 55.3%
  • RN and allies 21.8%
  • LR and allies 9.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 8.0%
  • Others 2.6%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • Greens 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereVal-d'Oise — 5ème circonscription 55.3%21.8%9.8%8.0%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% +15.5 29.6% −7.8 10.4% −0.5 17.3% −9.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +25.8 36.0% −14.2 12.2% −2.4 20.6% −12.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+33.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul VANNIER Elected Left (NFP) 23,308 56.0 —
Quentin HOARAU RN and allies 7,784 18.7 —
Fatima LILIYAJE Centre (Ensemble) 5,389 12.9 —
Boualem MEZIANE LR and allies 3,170 7.6 —
Dominique MARIETTE Far left 558 1.3 —
Dominique LESUEUR Greens 555 1.3 —
Gilbert PHAM LR and allies 412 1.0 —
Thès BALEUR Others 251 0.6 —
Jean-Baptiste POIAGHI Far left 189 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next