Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe JUVIN

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 50.5%
  • Left (NFP) 29.1%
  • RN and allies 17.9%
  • Others 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereHauts-de-Seine — 3ème circonscription 50.5%29.1%17.9%1.9%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine 16.9% +33.7 35.9% −6.8 19.2% −1.3 2.1% −0.2
National averageFrance 12.2% +38.3 29.5% −0.4 36.0% −18.1 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe JUVIN Elected LR and allies 31,109 52.1
Isabelle DAHAN Left (NFP) 18,774 31.4
Carole ROUSSEL RN and allies 8,478 14.2
Marc GERARD RN and allies 992 1.7
Aline FRADIN Far left 364 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next