Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 42% vote share, against 38% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thomas LAM

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 42.2%
  • Left (NFP) 38.2%
  • RN and allies 17.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies Left (NFP) RN and allies Others
HereHauts-de-Seine — 2ème circonscription 42.2%38.2%17.0%2.0%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine 16.9% +25.3 35.9% +2.3 19.2% −2.2 2.1% −0.1
National averageFrance 12.2% +30.0 29.5% +8.7 36.0% −18.9 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thomas LAM Elected LR and allies 21,760 41.6 —
Francesca PASQUINI Left (NFP) 20,683 39.5 —
Anne-Caroline GALLIMARD RN and allies 6,817 13.0 —
Sébastien PHAN Centre (Ensemble) 1,188 2.3 —
Julia PETTITT RN and allies 637 1.2 —
Ahmed LAKRAFI Centre (Ensemble) 564 1.1 —
Julien PUERTAS Far left 360 0.7 —
Louis DUROULLE Centre (Ensemble) 317 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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