Riding profile

Paris — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 46% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Léa BALAGE EL MARIKY

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 45.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 29.4%
  • RN and allies 12.9%
  • LR and allies 9.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 3ème circonscription 45.6%29.4%12.9%9.2%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +1.0 27.8% +1.7 15.0% −2.2 9.3% −0.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +16.1 20.6% +8.9 36.0% −23.1 12.2% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Léa BALAGE EL MARIKY Elected Left (NFP) 24,441 46.1 —
Stanislas GUERINI Centre (Ensemble) 18,001 34.0 —
Olga PODOLSKAIA RN and allies 4,709 8.9 —
Paul HATTE LR and allies 4,118 7.8 —
Marie COURTOIS RN and allies 486 0.9 —
Côme CITROEN Greens 433 0.8 —
Laurent BURTAIRE Far left 232 0.4 —
Grégory FERNANDES Far left 151 0.3 —
Quentin LAPORTE Centre (Ensemble) 116 0.2 —
Warda BAÏLICHE Centre (Ensemble) 102 0.2 —
Laurent SEMAT Left (NFP) 92 0.2 —
Thierry ALQUIER LR and allies 81 0.1 —
Irène GASARIAN Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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