Riding profile

Paris — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Paris — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 39% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean LAUSSUCQ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 39.1%
  • Left (NFP) 32.8%
  • RN and allies 15.4%
  • LR and allies 10.1%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 2ème circonscription 39.1%32.8%15.4%10.1%
Provincial averageParis 27.8% +11.3 44.5% −11.8 15.0% +0.4 9.3% +0.8
National averageFrance 20.6% +18.5 29.5% +3.3 36.0% −20.5 12.2% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marine ROSSET Left (NFP) 18,845 33.4 —
Jean LAUSSUCQ Elected Centre (Ensemble) 13,325 23.6 —
Gilles LE GENDRE Centre (Ensemble) 11,071 19.6 —
Melody DE WITTE RN and allies 6,206 11.0 —
Félicité HERZOG DE COSSÉ BRISSAC LR and allies 3,792 6.7 —
Romain MARSILY LR and allies 1,229 2.2 —
Ornella EVANGELISTA RN and allies 778 1.4 —
Cécile Marie LORANS Greens 512 0.9 —
Frédéric MAURIANGE Centre (Ensemble) 430 0.8 —
Charline JOLIVEAU Far left 168 0.3 —
Elise MAGNE Left (NFP) 60 0.1 —
Clara SACASA Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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