Riding profile

Paris — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Paris — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 40% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sylvain MAILLARD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 40.5%
  • Left (NFP) 31.2%
  • RN and allies 14.6%
  • LR and allies 11.3%
  • Others 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 1ère circonscription 40.5%31.2%14.6%11.3%
Provincial averageParis 27.8% +12.7 44.5% −13.4 15.0% −0.4 9.3% +2.0
National averageFrance 20.6% +19.9 29.5% +1.7 36.0% −21.4 12.2% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sylvain MAILLARD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 28,048 44.7 —
Raphaël KEMPF Left (NFP) 20,138 32.1 —
Delphine VOIRIN RN and allies 6,303 10.0 —
Laurence SAILLIET LR and allies 3,469 5.5 —
Pierre MAURIN LR and allies 2,883 4.6 —
Marine CHIABERTO RN and allies 991 1.6 —
Alban Ludovic Bertrand PINEAU Centre (Ensemble) 598 0.9 —
Laurence BOULINIER Far left 231 0.4 —
Mathilde CONTENSOU Others 89 0.1 —
Axel METZKER Others 3 0.0 —
Aurélien GAUTREAU Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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