Riding profile
Paris — 18ème circonscription
The question
Paris — 18ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Paris — 18ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 52% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Aymeric CARON
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | RN and allies | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereParis — 18ème circonscription | 52.3% | 28.8% | 11.0% | 5.4% |
| Provincial averageParis | 44.5% +7.8 | 27.8% +1.0 | 15.0% −4.1 | 9.3% −3.9 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +22.8 | 20.6% +8.2 | 36.0% −25.0 | 12.2% −6.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aymeric CARON Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,299 | 50.4 | — |
| Pierre-Yves BOURNAZEL | Centre (Ensemble) | 16,902 | 32.4 | — |
| Valérie TIREFORT | RN and allies | 3,641 | 7.0 | — |
| Rudolph GRANIER | LR and allies | 2,184 | 4.2 | — |
| Catherine COUTARD | Left (NFP) | 811 | 1.6 | — |
| Philippine LONG | Centre (Ensemble) | 804 | 1.5 | — |
| Pierre BRAVOZ | Left (NFP) | 742 | 1.4 | — |
| Marguerite PIERRE | RN and allies | 527 | 1.0 | — |
| Annie BOUBAULT | Far left | 214 | 0.4 | — |
| Audrey LE BOEUF | Others | 68 | 0.1 | — |
| David THIELE | Far left | 8 | 0.0 | — |
| Béatrice FAILLÈS | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Stéphane MANIGOLD | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Yasmin BERROUBA | Centre (Ensemble) | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Paris — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Paris — 17ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Paris — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Paris — 5ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Paris — 16ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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