Riding profile

Paris — 17ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 17ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 17ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 63% vote share, against 14% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Danièle OBONO

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 63.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.5%
  • RN and allies 13.0%
  • LR and allies 5.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%
  • Greens 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 17ème circonscription 63.5%14.5%13.0%5.2%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +18.9 27.8% −13.3 15.0% −2.0 9.3% −4.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +34.0 20.6% −6.1 36.0% −22.9 12.2% −7.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+49.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Danièle OBONO Elected Left (NFP) 26,238 64.2 —
Kolia BÉNIÉ Centre (Ensemble) 7,012 17.2 —
Anne DE LA BRÉLIE RN and allies 3,666 9.0 —
Angélique MICHEL LR and allies 1,619 4.0 —
Mathias SAINT-ELLIER Centre (Ensemble) 744 1.8 —
Michel BOUCHOU Greens 578 1.4 —
Brigitte RUMEAU RN and allies 414 1.0 —
Abdellah AKSAS Far left 399 1.0 —
Victor FOURNIER Centre (Ensemble) 181 0.4 —
Clément ROUSSEAU Far left 0 0.0 —
Marie-Agnès VALLEE Sovereignists 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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