Riding profile

Paris — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 54% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Pouria AMIRSHAHI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
27.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 53.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.3%
  • RN and allies 11.0%
  • LR and allies 5.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 5ème circonscription 53.7%26.3%11.0%5.4%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +9.1 27.8% −1.5 15.0% −4.0 9.3% −3.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +24.2 20.6% +5.7 36.0% −25.0 12.2% −6.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pouria AMIRSHAHI Elected Left (NFP) 32,152 54.2 —
Rachel-Flore PARDO Centre (Ensemble) 17,879 30.2 —
Céline CHEN RN and allies 4,186 7.1 —
Valentine SERINO LR and allies 2,459 4.2 —
Thiaba BRUNI Greens 674 1.1 —
Yoneko KIKUCHI RN and allies 534 0.9 —
Théo FAUCON Centre (Ensemble) 511 0.9 —
Arnaud BOROWSKI Greens 367 0.6 —
Monique DABAT Far left 271 0.5 —
Raymond Victor BASSIL Centre (Ensemble) 133 0.2 —
Anne CHAMAYOU Left (NFP) 114 0.2 —
Léonard GUIOT Far left 1 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next